Hello everyone,
Just wanted to make an update on my pf.
Companies | Weightage | Cost | Loss% |
---|---|---|---|
Krsnaa | 34% | 605.3 | 20% |
Cash | 70% | N/A | |
Sandhar | 22.75% | 262 | 8% |
My PF | CNXSMCALLCAP | NIFTY50 |
---|---|---|
14.5% | -19% | -5.3% |
Regarding Krsnaa position.
- Of all the risks I thought could have played out, slow growth and margin decompression(growth and margins go hand in hand here) are not the ones I expected to play out. Yet to read the transcripts of Q1 by mgmt, but will do so and decide on whether to continue holding my shares or not.
- Personally don’t think much of the IT raids, Dr. Velumani sir mentioned that they weren’t a big deal. We should ideally get a clarification in a week or so time, with an accurate figure on how much money was seized.
Learnings
- A few things that I have made note of, is that it is better for amateur funda investors like me to look out for some confirmation in charts rather than going into a downtrending stock.
I have made my largest gains in stocks with strong momentum.
FCL bought at 160, sold at 213. After which it corrected.
Bought at 2250 and sold at 2850. After which it corrected.
In both of the above cases, the strong momentum continued well after I sold due to uncomfortable valuations. I do feel like I made blunder on both FCL and Fluorochem, and should have re-entered when they continued to respect MA’s.
Now coming to a blunder that has cost me money.
The stock was in a constant downtrend and never broke out. I bought at 605. I felt like due to high growth the stock would eventually clear overhead supply. But unbeknownst to me, the major thesis pointers would get hammered. Buying a stock in a downtrend is like literally fighting a wave.
Point noted - Prefer buying stocks with some confirmation on charts, until more experience in funda side is gained.
Way forward
Looking ahead, Pf will have some changes.
-
Slowly, I will be allocating a certain part of capital into momentum and CANSLIM. Not yet confident enough of allocating cash into it. But have been doing a weekly exercise of looking into momentum stocks and slowly I will be speculating into momentum with the help of charts. I’m not sure about the guidelines regarding posting charts on TA and will refrain from doing so, and keep it to giving names of stocks for a while.
-
Will be avoiding downtrends in stocks, while I could make money, chances are I won’t. The hard part about being a “contrarian”, is that eventually the contrarian opinion would have to cease being a contra opinion to make money. I have realised that I am not there yet and more work needs to be done. I need to build a more well defined framework(with special attention on what needs to be avoided, eg B2G) for my funda bets and as time goes on I should improve in those regards.
On a more personal front, my mother gifted me 2 books that I have been wanting for a while(on account of doing well in ICSE). The 2 books are -
- Masterclass with super investors.
- Poor Charlie’s Almanack.
Have finished the 1st and will be reading it multiple times over. May share some things I learned later.
Thank you!
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