The situations you have described about some companies benefitting and some losing out due to the situation in EU/US are not likely to be permanent. And for us sitting in India, its going to be difficult to figure out when things are going to reverse.
Instead of basing my investment thesis on these kind of uncertain situations I would like to focus on the companies which are strong enough to withstand such hiccups and if possible emerge stronger.
In the things you have ennumerated, the hypothesis comes across as very complicated and unpredictable. I personally prefer to have my investment theses simple and easy to define.
@preetshah Hawkins remains a good company for someone who wants steady compounding with limited downside. And if company can conjure up higher growth trajectory, it can provide better than compounding returns. Vardhman Holdings is as you say a holding company and unless there is an outright sale of the company it holds, I don’t see holding company discount going away soon. The quantum of discount may vary from time to time, depending upon market mood and other factors, but its better to focus on individual companies rather than try to play the holding company discount game. I have found the latter to be a frustrating experience.
The other aspect you have highlighted about low share capital is also something that needs to be tested. I have always found that its the company’s performance and particularly earnings that decide the stock price returns.
@Mohanlate I already mentioned that in some infra companies, I see some charts evolving into bullish patterns but its still early days. No use sharing now when things are uncertain. Once patterns form and confirm I will share if I find it suitable. L&T and PSP both seem to be good structures.
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