Puneeth’s Portfolio(Growing Alpha)

Good day everyone!

Today we will be going through a lot of things, where I made money this week and updates. Will do a comprehensive analysis of my mistakes and misses of the week, + Learnings from doing momentum and how I wll go forward.

Warning – this will be a chart heavy post. Also if you want a better understanding of what I’m doing please go through the thread, where I gave a concise explanation of what I’m doing(VCPs, BOs). Nothing is a reco, especially not from an amateur like me.

All suggestiong and critiques are very welcome!

Before we begin, pf performance from OCT 20th 2021 is as follows –

Pf alloc of today stands like so.

Numbers will add up to >100% as booked profits of the year is not considered as capital employed.

For those that havent seen my previous thread.(although I’d recommend checking them out)
What I look for –

1. Uptrend.
2. Volume(High on +ve and low on bases)
3. Tightening(VCP)
4. ? started looking for this week read on to find out.

Misses of the week(That I promise I won’t beat myself for )

1. FCL(miss of the year tbh)

   

   Initially bought in at 160 average, and constituted 35% of PF. Sold at 213. There was a perfect re-entry opportunity at 160(came back to my original price), volumes on base were low, promoter bought some more, Ashish Kacholia sir bought more, their latest concall they upped the capex and capacities. A perfect storm of opportunity. Now it is a 2x. The profits missed out here would make the pf returns ~42% from the current 16.9%. Infuriating to say the least. Atleast I learnt I guess.

2. Schaeffler

   

   Schaeffler is part of the stocks that I was tracking, and continued to rise and rise forming constructive and resilient basess at every stopping point. While I don’t believe it would be prudent for me to enter, it is something to keep in mind regarding stocks that have gone up a lot. They keep doing so(if there are resilient bases).

3. ElgiEquip

   

   Similar episode. BO – Retest and continued strength(in what mind you was a not very supportive broad market)

4. Ramratan Wires

   

   High tight flag type stock. Missed a few of them like this. Once a major BO is achieved a constructive strong base is made where risk is minimal but upside is received quickly(Typically 2-3 days)

5. Dlink India

   

   Same story. It is one of my major enligtenments in this week is unfilled gaps and incredibly tight bases with theoretically <2% risk. Truly magnificient. This is comparable to my previous Eureka moment when I finally understood ROCE and its dupont properly. Feels magnificient.

6. Rushil Decor

   

   AGAIN the same thing. BO with unfilled gap. Tightens and moves on. I’m not done with the examples of the same.

7. SBCL

   

   I beat myself up the most for this one. A company with a wonderful thread on VP that I have been reading for a while. Thought the stock chart was perfect, never entered in the first base. After the unfilled gap, I price anchored myself. This will set the stage for my Tata chem trade where I will increase allocation(chart is at a similar setup, shown below)

8. Ashok Leyland

   

   Tight + mega cap. Lower risk in terms of beta, not very advantageous to me but nonetheless a clean setup.

9. EIH

   

   A big one, that I found after a move was made but eitherways same theory.

10. Rohl

    

    Notice the tight days the stock spent right before moving and crushing out supply.

Currently in PF + Hits of the week.

1. Affle

   

   Avg buy price – 1170, Sold – 1297.
   Clear tightening, clean BO on volumes. Staggered a 2nd purchase. Sold at resistance, will keep on WL for next leg up.

2. Msumi

   

   Avg Buy price – 80.9, still holding. Edged above resistance on Friday will good volumes. Lets see how it goes.

3. SJS

   

   Avg Buy – 494, still holding. Stock continued to edge up and I added on friday, might BO with high volumes. Lets see how it plays out.

4. Panamapet

   

   Avg buy – 321, still holding, business has clean volume profile and minimal selling. Yet to make a move lets see how it goes.

5. Paradeep Phosphates

   

   Avg buy – 54.8. Stock moved 10% in 1 day. Still holding, lets see how it plays out.(Low alloc)

6. RIIL

   

   Avg buy – 1090, Sold at – 1102. Trade went well initially(8% up in 1 day) but then moved SL to above cost and it got triggered, in watchlist.

7. AGI

   

   Avg buy – 319, Avg sold – 340. Made some 6-7% in 1 day sold into strength.

8. Tata chem

   

   Avg Buy – 1143, Still holding, will likely buy some more. Have given some context of tata chem chart in the mistakes and misses section. Same pattern, lets see how it pans out.

9. Welcorp

   

   Avg buy – 241. Still holding, BO.

10. Talbros engineering.

    

    Avg Buy – 589.9. Still holding, very neat chart. Clean upmove, consolidation on low volumes.

Hopefully, it was a productive and helpful read!

Happy day