Thank you, very helpful Chandra.
Other key qualitative points are:
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Looks like it’s clear that the elder & younger brothers would take Sugar & Turbines respectively. I think the group itself is gearing for the upcoming gross fixed formation opportunity in India plus international business.
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I think it takes a lot of confidence to amicably part ways with a behemoth & venture on its own. I think it stems from the R&D work Triveni is doing in-house which Nikhil is alluding to multiple times.
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Nikhil was quite clear the opportunity in services & maintenance area. With the recent win (lower margins), they can venture into >100 MW area in this segment.
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The other parameters like Cash rich, decent return ratios (in a down cycle), premium valuations (cause & effect), up cycle, promoter education background, small-cap are all pointing to positive views.
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Technically, the stock is at all time highs in this scary environment is reminiscent of consumer stocks in 2012-2013 time which went on to create wealth over the next decade.
Capital goods is something I too never invested, so quite challenging to get a grip & build conviction. How ever, I think it is worth the time now.
On your IndiaMart AGM post, I’m in split minds on management. They come across as hardworking & decent corporate governance but some irritants remain. Probably, being new to stock markets make them jittery? I somehow did not like their minority investments strategy at all. But their presence through main business app IndiaMart is tough to ignore. With the sudden jump in quarterly subscriptions in 10000 range, I think it’s their sales team on steroids rather than genuine demand on the ground from MSMEs. In last concall for a question on what limits them to achieve 30% plus growth, if I hear correctly, Dinesh Agarwal said, “my bandwidth”! I did not like this. He should be able to recruit top talent and empower them to achieve targets rather than try to be one man show.
In the above interview, both the brothers gave lofty targets which were not at all achieved. Probably, we should give benefit of doubt as the external environment was not conducive? But something that needs monitoring if they are on track or not.
Some resources (you might have already gone through):
Good interview:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-27/indian-steam-turbine-maker-sees-demand-fueling-order-growth
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