Hi,
Thanks for the questions, will try to answer as best as I can.
Their Annual Report quotes from McCoy Reports which says that the global market for 5-100 MW segment has increased from 8.9 GW in 2012 to 11.7 GW in 2021, which is an annual increase of 3% over a period of 9 years. I am not sure how much this translates into in terms of dollars. This does not cover the below-5 MW segment in which the company operates, and for which I think no proper data is available. Broadly, the company says the market for large turbines (>100 MW) has declined in the past decade but that for smaller turbines is steady or growing slowly.
In India, I understand Siemens is the main domestic competitor though not a comparable company since Siemens does many other things also. International players which operate in this segment are GE, Siemens, Mitsubishi, MAN, Baker Hughes, Solar Turbines, Ansaldo, and Elliott. Frankly, I haven’t gone to the extent of analyzing the competition to have a more detailed perspective.
It must be highly cyclical no doubt, but I think the Ukraine war and the ensuing crisis is forcing the whole world to take a close hard look at its energy costs. This includes not only industry but also governments and municipalities. We are still in the middle of this, don’t know where it will end but hopefully the current upswing will last longer than normal economic cycles.
Renewables are a huge opportunity. It was already in an upswing as part of the broader ESG trend last two years, the company’s order book (pre-Ukraine war) was probably a reflection of that. The Ukraine war fallout will give it further impetus. This factor, is in addition to the sudden increase in TAM thanks to the GE settlement should move the company into a new orbit. That is the main investment thesis here.
I hope these answers suffice. For me also, this is the first and only investment in the capital goods / power / infra sector, so I am also trying to learn more.
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