Exits in case of sectoral bets usually involve two types of scenarios.
First is where the sector which is usually a commodity (or a glorified commodity) sector starts being touted as a structural story, more so after sharp run up. There is a lot of fanfare related to the sector, a lot of research reports with super bullish targets start coming out even after wild run ups , and anywhere you go, its that particular sector making the headlines. In short, typical signs of froth. Key here is to look at the kind of historical valuations the sector has commanded during previous bull runs and take some hints from it. This usually provides exit when stock price is still climbing up and sometimes our exits seem or are premature.
Second typically is when the sectoral tailwinds start turning, or stock prices give early warnings of things going sour. Usually this is indicated by some kind of technical topping out pattern , say double top, or some kind of weekly or monthly candlestick bearish pattern, or simply a breakdown below 30 WMA, or breach of some key support region which used to give support. Here the selling is done when the stock price is on its way down. If the fall is too precipitous, then selling is often difficult execution wise, or psychologically where we have seen far higher prices and keep hoping that stock price will recover at some point of time, but actually it rarely does.
Sectoral rallies and crashes in different sectors follow nearly similar pathways and psychology and one needs to observe these things closely in markets to figure out certain things, rather than get carried away by price moves. ( And inspite of all these observations I still get carried away, or often exit too early ) There is no holy grail, except to learn from past mistakes, often to make a different set of unexpected mistakes, not always, but sometimes.
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