I totally agree with your assessment. However,the Chennai plant will have much better EBITDA/T vs. the MP plant simply due to much lower logistic costs. That needs to be built in. The other source of upside will be export markets especially developed countries like EU/US where shipments will be sent via the port in Chennai. Michelin,etc. are already customers so penetration shouldn’t be very tough.
One other key risk acc to me is realisations. Steel prices most likely won’t sustain at these levels till Fy26 and surely realisations for RR will also fall. Thus,even if there is volume growth the revenue growth will near zero and so will the EBITDA/PAT growth.
Markets have their own ways though. 2 years back people didn’t want to pay even 12-15x for RR,now there is solid strength in the stock even at 42x ttm earnings.
Disc.: sold some months back.
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