I was trying to guesstimate the market size for resistors, to start with, I have picked up the relatively easier market of smart metering in India. Going by this article and several other news items, there seems to be a plan to replace 25 crore meters in India. Since I am from non-electrical background, I relied heavily on topology diagrams of smart meters to get a sense of the number of resistors needed in a smart meter. Here are a a couple of articles that have helped - white paper, smart meter topology. Resistors used for current sensing should be of low value (2 ohms or so, relied on google for this) and the price of these resistors is around 15 rupees. The smart meter national programme targets to deploy these meters by 2025 as per this article.
Here is the current status of the smart metering programme - dashboard. So far, 60 lakh meters have been installed, including pending it shows the total as 1 crore meters. With this pace, we may not be able to achieve the target of 25 crores by the end of 2025.
Let’s assume 15 crore meters are deployed by the end of 2025.
Putting all the assumptions together -
Market size - 15 crore meters * 3 resistors (per meter) * 15 = 675 crores (conservative)
Let’s double it to make it the best case estimate - 1350 crores
Assuming the market share of shivalik is 50% - 675 crores (till end of 2025)
Per year - 270 crores sales from smart metering in India.
However, this looks like the best case estimate, esp. given that we have assumed that the govt can deploy 15 crore meters by the end of 2025. And, the 50% market share in India is something that I am not sure of.
Please correct me if you see something wrong with my assumptions.
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