Just considering bull and bear case scenario considering the management ‘Aspiration’ of achieving 100 cr quarterly revenue runrate by end of 2026.
Bull case:
Company achieves this aspiration and clock 400cr revenue by 2026.
As per their guidelines the margins might moderate a bit as base grows. So considering 37% OPM, and P/E of 30 (considering the good growth).
The market cap comes around 3300cr.
Normal case:
Assuming the company even clocks 80crs a quarter, and keeps OPM around 35%, with 320cr revenue, and P/E of 28 (around current TTM P/E).
The market cap comes around 2350cr.
Bear case:
Assuming the company only achieves 60crs a quarter, and OPM around 30%. With 240cr revenue and P/E of 25 (assuming a derating)
The market cap comes around 1350cr.
So there is a potential of getting a 3x-7x returns in next 4 years. Am I missing something out?
Disclaimer: Tracking position. This is not an investment advice. Please do your own diligence.
P.S: It all depends on execution. Also, promotors selling stake in the name of diversification is a concern.
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