Hi Sir,
extremely informative posts by you. I am also a big fan of technical analysis but a even bigger fan of tracking macro events.
When nifty was close to 15k and every was expecting it to go to 12k I was pretty sure it will not go below 15k but I posted this logic on different platform. I cannot share screenshot here otherwise it will look promotional.
My logic why nifty cannot go below 15k but in coming time will touch 16k.
- Current nifty EPS is 837 and by this year end it is going to be above 850 minimum.
During covid we had lowest PE of 18.74 and today our economy is way ahead from that
period. So even if I take the worst case and a PE of 18 the price comes out to be 15300.
This is nifty 50 chart with median of 20 and the green line which is a buy zone is 17PE.
Moreover 15k was a breakout region from earlier consolidation so acts as a strong support. If you also see nifty has broken the recent consolidation channel. Current fall till 16k can be a retracement and thereafter nifty can go towards all time high.
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Bank nifty is even stronger than nifty. Their EPS is going to be more than 2300 at least
Their PE is below covid level and we can se that the PE is tending upward from last 15yrs. Even if I take a pe of 15 here price comes out to be 34500.
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NIFTY IT has already been punished too much and further downside from here is very
much limited -
Nifty has a gap at 16k and current weakness can be extended to that level but 16k is a strong support. Bank nifty has a gap at 36k and 34500. I expect bank nifty to test 36k
in the recent downtrend and worst case 34k. NIFTY IT has a strong support at 25k so the current fall can be extended to that level.
I would love your view on why you see NIFTY going below 15k despite earnings going up.
I am extremally openminded I would love your view.
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