Wearing my product management lens 
and doing a quick back of the tissue paper 
calculation –
The total export basmati market size of KRBL (& likes)
= Total Meals when basmati is consumed
= Avg. annual meals per person * population of basmati importing nations
Common sense in my mind says:
- Avg. Annual meals per person – roughly remains constant unless people create a new staple way of eating basmati or invent a new popular wildly addictive drink out of it
- Population growth of these nations – won’t explode, gradual growth maybe, nothing that can have a lollapalooza effect
- These importing nations – too are a constant (no other country imports basmati)
- Rate /kg – is almost already is at a peak (Thanks @ganeshrpl), can’t practically go beyond a point
The likely possibilities of export sales growth can be:
- Tap into nations not yet present in (Kenya, Italy…etc.) – competition from Pak will be there, can’t be zero
- Convert non-basmati nations into basmati nations & make them addicted to it (make US, Australia, Germany, France, etc. ) – possible not probable, surely not within an year
- A newer way of basmati consumption begins – becomes animal feed, etc. ( very unlikely)
So what really are the themes for KRBL (& likes ) that will really get them their re-rating –
- Brand Extension (LT is ahead here…with Organic, Convenience products)
- Portfolio Expansion
- Increase of Non Basmati Revenue
- Rising Domestic Consumption of Branded Rice
What could be the other possible themes?
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