you have made an interesting observation indeed.
On the weekly timeframe it does appear that a channel breakout has happened.
However, if we look at an even larger timescale, say the monthly timeframe, things look quite different.
Looking all the way back to 2006, uptrends in NIFTY PHARMA have sustained only when it has closed above 20-month MA, followed by a confirmation in the subsequent monthly candle ( marked in red , middle of the bollinger band ).
The risk -reward will skewed towards an uptrend only when it closes above 13400 ( This also happens to be resistance zone for the previous major monthly peak in sep-15.
[Disc] : Recently exited my pharma bets in losses !
Regards,
Abhijit.
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