Dr Chava said in an interview that ARV API sales are good as Laurus is the price leader, but ARV Formulation sales were not leaders; they were a follower. In a sense, they were the lowest cost for ARV API but lost business to other lower-cost providers for ARV API. They have changed their strategy now and are price setters even in ARV API. I get the impression that he already has orders in hand for ARV Formulation based on the interview. Laurus lost 500 cr ARV formulation business, and they cannot recover this in the next quarters, causing them to reduce their guidance.
In terms of CDMO, I think (and many others here) a large part of CDMO sales is non-sustainable. However, as per the interview, it will CDMO sales is likely to do well.
Pfizer has signed contracts with many developed countries for Paxlovid, and Europe is starting their winter session. In the last two years, Europe has seen a spike in covid cases, and I think some countries have reported an increase in covid cases. So it is likely that Paxlovid sales may be strong in Q3 as well as Q4. If Europe/US do not see a reoccurrence of covid, then they are unlikely to sign a long-term contract with Pfizer for Paxlovid, which will impact Laurus. I think Laurus will taper down the expectation, but they believe CDMO growth will continue to be strong. I hope they do, but it looks challenging keeping these sales in FY24.
Very nice interview on BQ Prime (posting the link directly instead of going through twitter)
https://www.youtube.com/embed/LbfPt87upAA
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