Thanks – your comments help sharpen the thesis. Although the growth looks not too different, the fact is a lot of growth is now led by new airlines in asia, middle east and africa.
I do a job that allowed to meet a couple of regional airlines and all of them said the same thing – there has never been a better time to start an airline because of low crude prices and huge demand in india/china and africa.
In your link, if you read carefully, air traffic in india was up 28.1 %, middle east was up 18.5 % and lat am at 8.5 %. Africa had a decline because of the dependency on oil revenues – but my thesis is as these economies mature and solve the dutch disease, they will become more robust and weather the oil storm.
Already, nigeria is spoken of as a promising economy by godrej which has acquired brands there.
My sense is that the next couple of years, save for a financial storm should see a brisk uptick in launch of new airlines – how many survive is anyone’s guess.
It’s not the passenger growth that’s important, but how much of that is coming from newly formed airlines that’s relevant to accelya. As always, I could be wrong here.
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