I think one will have to carefully monitor the Q3 and Q4 results, especially to see if there is a significant ramp up in ARV formulations revenues, because most likely the quarterly CDMO revenue run rate of 720 crores is not sustainable given that at least some, if not a large part of it comes from Paxlovid. Dr. Chava also did not seem very confident of the current run-rate sustaining, all he said is that “we have capacities and we expect CDMO to do well”. Hence, if ARV formulations revenues do not come back, the revenues will fall off the cliff.
FY’24 and 25 do look promising with the construction work already being commenced for creating a new R&D center (FY24 completion) and three manufacturing units (FY24/25) – all dedicated for CDMO activities.
I think Laurus Bio can be a dark horse and if the recombinant food protein technology does take off, the division can show exponential growth. At an expected FY’23 revenue forecast for 6500 crore, EBITDA at 2000 crore, and PAT at roughly 1200 crores, the stock (CMP:450) is currently trading at 20 times FY’23 earnings and 13 times EV/EBITDA.
D:Invested
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