I had a loss of 30% on globus spirits after I first brought it and then it went on to deliver multiples of my buy price.
If you are a technical buyer generally you should be able to avoid the 10% draw down.
Its near impossible to have a 10% drawdown if trading technically if the amount you are investing is low as you shld have and respect a stop loss.
However I trade fundamentally as I dont live in India and keeping technical trading screens open during trading hours is difficult
I do trade technicals in US and on s&p futures
I trade only flag patterns breakout with a stop loss. Apcotex had a failed breakout with volume on 23rd september but no follow through.
The promoters have been buying a lot of quantity as if you look at their last investor presentation, the expansion is not talked about a lot neither they talk about their demand. Those things are mentioned in the concall.
I suspect they want to either underpromise/overdeliver or maybe accumulate a bit more when the expansion initial hurdles are ironed out
On technicals its still within the flag pattern. At this stage the risk is it might break down which if it does, then it will lose another 5 to 10% however if you pick now, with a 5% stop loss the risks are very low
Ofcourse all stocks move in line with markets. If the index is down, most will give some but generally during the july selloff I was invested in Timken that didnt break the flag although was nearly about to but fresh money kept arriving into it as as soon as the indices turned it rallied
I think for me 30% drawdown for 3x return is fair game, nothing can go up in a straight line. My partner gets worried when its down 30% but I have asked her to not look at where I am investing just worry about running the home and giving me time off. Win-win
Apolgies for the long post.
Ps: the increase in WIP and borrowing is in line with my expectations of what should happen during expansion stage. I’d be worried there was no change in WIP or cost of capital. I actually had made a screen once to see growth in CWIP and inventory but all of it takes time to drill into which I dont have.
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