Currently, promoter holding is 69.4%. Public holding is 17%, DII is 10.4% and FII is 3.1%. If public offers up at least 50% of their present holding and FIIs offer up 20% of their present holding, the promoter shareholding will actually go up after the buyback even if HDFC only tenders a very small number of shares. It will go up over 75% actually. If HDFC offers up a bit more, promoter holding can go up to 78-80%.
Looks like the objective may be to get public holding to a small number and then go for delisting. But if reverse book build is transparent as you have clarified, then staying invested could pay off. Of course, all this assumes the business does well and there is not something else going on. It’s more or less a bet on the management’s ethics.
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