Good Enough
Collab Fund
Spare a thought for the poor guppy fish, who lives a miserable existence but teaches us something important about forecasting.
The point is that nature is very good at assessing future risk and uncertainty and allocating resources accordingly.
It takes a realistic look at future threats and says, “There are so many risks lurking. Don’t even bother trying to plan for the future.” For others it says, “Your future is clear and foreseeable – predict away with confidence.”
Fish are masters at this balance. Birds are masters at this balance. Insects are masters at this balance. But people trying to forecast the economy? Different story.
Everyone knows the economy is hard to predict, and the history of economic predictions is abysmal. But leaving it at that is too simplistic. I think we’re actually very good at predicting the future – except for the surprises, which tend to be all that matter.
It’s less about admitting that we can’t forecast, and more about acknowledging that if your forecast is merely good enough, you can invest your time and resources more efficiently elsewhere.
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