Big Beliefs
Collaborative Fund
A trick to learning a complicated topic is realizing how many complex details are a cousin of something simple. John Reed writes in his book Succeeding: When you first start to study a field, it seems like you have to memorize a zillion things. You don’t. What you need is to identify the core principles – generally three to twelve of them – that govern the field. The million things you thought you had to memorize are simply various combinations of the core principles.
A few big things I believe:
The inability to forecast the past has no impact on our desire to forecast the future.
No one’s success is proven until they’ve survived a calamity.
It takes less effort to increase confidence than it does ability.
Incentives are the strongest force in the world.
Sitting still feels reckless in a fast-moving world, even in situations where it offers the best odds of long-term compounding.
It’s hard to determine what is dumb luck and what is unfortunate risk.
Calm plants the seeds of crazy.
Stories are more powerful than statistics, because they’re easier to understand and contextualize to your own life.
As Aldous Huxley writes, “Man has an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted.”
Most people are blind to their own faults.
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