Prices for REIT according to me are the most affected by interest rates. I like to treat them more as a debt part of my portfolio. The alternatives I have currently for this portion of my portfolio are-
- Fixed Deposits- Currently one can get about 6-7% pa return in any bank’s FD with least risk on principal. After taxation of 30% this amounts to anywhere around 4.2-4.9% pa.
- Debt Mutual Funds- Currently we can find good funds with 100% funds in AAA rated securities with yield to maturity anywhere around 7.25%. Post taxation this return would be around 5.01% (STCG) and 5.8% (LTCG) if invested in a growth variant.
- REIT’s- Embassy Reit currently with ₹21.70 DPU and about 85% of this being tax free gives a yield about 6.2% (at cmp-330).
For me this higher yield with optionality of principal to grow (which is absent in other 2 alternatives) acts as the deciding factor in choosing Embassy REIT at cmp. Even higher yields if prices fall further should act as support. At all time low of 310 this yield would increase to 6.65%.
Around 29% (9.8msf ) of completed area (33.4msf) is under construction, rent escalations of 15% every 3 years,19% MTM of rent and increase rental of SEZ if Desh Bill plays out are some growth triggers for growth of rents and hence DPU in mid to long term.
Risks I can see are-
- Liquidation by Embassy and Blackstone (Weak shareholding pattern by Sponsors).-This along with interest rate hikes has played out and is the reason for such sharp fall in prices. This for me will be the biggest risk if the horizon is short term.
- Further increase in interest rates- According to most reports the interest rate hike will peak with one more hike of 50bps as inflation is under control in India currently.
If that happens the all time lows may get tested again but yield of 6.65% should act as support. - Recession led vacancies- I don’t consider this as a risk as India is seeing high growth and even more interest from foreign companies. Increased outsourcing in India to reduce costs should also lead to filling up of office spaces.
Disclaimer: Recently bought Embassy REIT and will add in second tranche after December rate hike. Please consider your own risk profile before taking any investment decision.
Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |