There’s a difference between known risks and unknown risks. When the export duties were first announced, it was extremely difficult for anybody to make a call with certainty on the future of the business – even the management themselves. You could take a punt by buying the pessimism, but could you know for sure whether the probabilities were in your favour – in both the short and long term? I could not and I’m sure it was the same case for many investors who had been tracking this closely for a lot longer than I have.
By exiting then, I protected myself from the ~20% drawdown in the stock price that followed.
Once we heard from the management, I was more than happy buying back – this time increasing my overall position size.
It’s important to note that the recent rally in the stock came after the duties were rolled back. So without this trigger, who knows how long it would have taken for the stock to get moving again.
GPIL is not a buy and hold stock for me. As much as I love the business and am confident in its future prospects, I’m happy selling and leaving money on the table rather than facing drawdowns in a downcycle.
My conservative rough figures:
Market cap = 5138cr
Cash by end FY23 = 500cr
FY23 EBITDA = 1200cr
FY23 EV/EBITDA = ~3.8
Disc: Invested at 8% of portfolio, looking to trim post 6000cr market cap. This is not a buy or sell recco. Process over everything. 
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