I’ve figured in 12+ years of investing that it’s almost impossible for me to avoid from drawdowns or time entry/exits. Though sometimes I’ve been able to sell and avoid near-time draw-downs I’ve seen the stock go up within months or an year.
With GPIL though I can never track factory/shipment movements it’s possible by spending 30 minutes a week to understand the trend by following steelmint and especially domain experts like @Rakesh_Arora who have been willing to share their knowledge and give multiple ways to evaluate the company. It doesn’t hurt that GPIL (and peers like Shyam, Sarda) share lot of info.
I’ve been building up my position to < 20% slowly and intended to build it to even ~35-40% when the levies were surprisingly revoked. Not going to chase the stock till more clarity emerges, though with ~160 MT ore reserves at old rates, there’s a long runway.
I’m assuming Q2FY23 is the low point for some time in the future and Q3 FY23 may only be slightly better than Q2. GPIL’s book value will keep going up and it’s always a buy at 1 P/B.
Also trying to figure out if there are turn-around candidates like GPIL was in 2019-20, they may offer higher appreciation, but GPIL with captive mines offers lower risk.
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