An excellent write-up but the above sentence summarises the whole post.
But strangely we’re surprised by the timing-where is pessimism ?
We’re hardly 5% down from the top – market is bullish, stocks are making break-outs every other day.
2. The news headlines are bad
Difficult to judge because every news is a good news in a bull market and and every news is a bad news in a bear market.
There is a difference between a bad news and worst news.
So better to wait for the worst news to trickle in -only then the bottoms are made.EG – start of covid in Decemeber,2019 in China, Lehman Brothers crisis – and bottom is not made on the same day – it took 3-4 months after that for market.
We are far-far away as currently we have bad news, but worst-news are missing.
4. Not everything that goes down, comes back up, though it happens most of the times (Reversion to mean)
Correct – every new bull run has new heroes.
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