We work on some proprietary models on refnitiv database. By and large technicals aside, fundamental data points in US are a bit easy to gather than in India.
The US market recession, ie 2 quarters of negative gdp, will start in 2 half of H2 2023.
What the markets will do is anybody’s guess over that long a time horizon.
We also track liquidity on refnitive although in theory one can do it on fed balance sheet or even tradingview reports these numbers on a weekly basis.
Based on that model we see a significant sell off around jan 6, right until 3rd week of jan. The models are not reality they are a guideline so the actual dates could be off by a week although they very rarely are off by that much.
There is no point in predicting more than a week or 2 into the future specially as one cannot really benefit over a longer time prediction.
Once the Jan selloff is underway, we decide when is the right time to come off short es and go long es. Currently we are long es that will be exited before Jan 6th
I’d love to do something similar for modelling the nifty but data like how much cash and notes held between the reserve bank and various banks is very hard to come by. The only reasonable data reported with quite a lag is level of debt, personal, household, credit card etc however the reporting lag makes it difficult to be used for any real benefit
If Indian markets follow US and December quarter results come around feb, the Indian markets will most probably sell off after Jan 6 until probably 3rd week Jan based on U.S. fundamentals
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