I think they can easily touch 5000 cr. by 2027
Considering FY23, they will touch somewhere north of 2200 crores. I would consider it as 1700 crores if we are considering FY 27 because huge portion of the revenue is driven by higher realizations of caustic segment.
Now, as per their concalls, they should be able to achieve more than 1000 crores with ECH and CPVC plants, so that brings us to 2700 crores. And with Chlorotoluene coming on line in FY 24, and revenue potential of 400-600 crores from there, let’s take 500 crores, we’re touching 3200 crores in FY 25.
Now remember, Chlorotoluene addressable market is quite huge and is estimated to be somewhere around INR 15bn, so there’s huge scalable opportunities there, and since the company is also setting up the R&D center for this chemistry, it should be able to come out with new products in this chemistry and expand there, so given that, next 1800 crores should come from this chemistry and ofcourse some chunk of this 1800 crores will be taken care by inflation.
Risk: Company is new to specialty segment and no one can judge the R&D capability, since company is going to increase its captive consumption, so it needs to offset that revenue from derivative or specialty segment as well.
And company keeps on saying that it first in Chlorotoluene chemistry, not sure why, given Aarti Industries is also setting up the plant for the same chemistry.
Disc: not invested, studying as of now !!
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