Dhiraj
There is not capex because this is a services led business – world over most of hardware + services companies do not need a lot of capex.
I did talk to a packaging head of a FMCG company and he told me control print is offering much looser credit terms than their competition – look at inventory + receivables days and it’s jumped from 232 days in 2009 to 335 by FY 2015 – hardly sign of an increasing moat. Infact, that explains the reason why promoters have to keep bringing in money in what’s a high margin,high ROE business. Look at operating cash flows as a % of sales and they are falling too.
ultimately for a Rs. 300 Cr. mcap you are getting 8 cr. of OCF – Even without growth, its about 15-16 cr. of OCF – that’s very expensive IMHO. A company that keeps growing EPS without a growth in OCF has a lot of risks – eg., opto circuits, suzlon
I did look at their competitors – their receivables/inventory are not as high.
Look at what munger has to say about such a business –
“There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12%, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12%, but all the excess cash must be reinvested — there’s never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, “There’s all of my profit.” We hate that kind of business.”
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