Hi everyone,
Hope you all are doing great.
I am planning to enter markets with my partnership firm. In this regard, I have identified few investment opportunities. I would like if you all could provide your views on the same.
Below is the list of identified businesses which according to me are good for 5-6 years time frame.
1. Piramal Enterprises
2. Vaibhav Global
3. Mayur Uniquoters
4. Atul Auto
5. Accelya Kale Solutions
6. Ambika Cotton
7. Ashiana Housing
8. Oriental Carbon
9. PTC India Financials
10. Shriram Transport Finance
11. Thomas Cook
12. Symphony
13. Relaxo Footwears
14. Cupid Ltd.
However, according to me, most of them currently trade at fair / expensive valuations. I am briefing my current views on each of them.
I plan to invest a total of 80% of my investible money. Of this 80%, I am looking at investing in 8-10 companies. 20% to stay in cash for any opportunities, which may arise.
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Piramal Enterprises – Betting on Mr. Ajay Piramal. Looks like a steady 18-22% investment for 5-6 years. Plan to invest now with 8-10% allocation.
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Vaibhav Global – Good economics – Cash generative business – Nice ROCE – Growth visibility – Looks cheap (if growth picks in the H2 of FY 2015-16). Plan to invest now with 8-10% allocation.
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Mayur Uniquoters – Proven business – Steady earnings outlook with revenue visibility (auto, footwear, furnishing) – However, looks appropriately valued. Plan to invest 50% of planned allocation of 8-10%
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Atul Auto – Proven record – Steady earnings outlook with revenue visibility (export of petrol vehicle) – However, looks appropriately valued/ overvalued.
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Accelya Kale Solutions – Good business – ROCE – Cash generative – Dividend Yield – Dividend payment history – Operating leverage play. However, I am not able to foresee any major growth in revenues. Until then, no planned allocation. Wait n watch.
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Ambika Cotton – Decent business history – Cash generative. However, looks appropriately valued. No plans to put in money until it is available at deep discount as I am a bit skeptical regarding the ‘textile’ industry’s economics.
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Ashiana Housing – Great business model – Cash generative – Great past record. Real estate slow down may hurt the company and the stock bad. I find no MOS at the current price. Hence, no allocation as of now.
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Oriental Carbon & Chemicals – Good business economics – good past record – Revenue visibility. However, currently operating at 95-98% capacity. Next capacity expansion to kick in from 2017. Hence, I think this will be available cheap in the near future (1-1.5 years) as revenues / profits gets flat / negligible growth. No allocation as of now, but keeping a close watch.
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PTC India Financials – Good past track record (though on low base) – good ratios – Seems to be a little less than appropriately valued – Plan to invest 50-70% of planned investment of 10% allocation.
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Shriram Transport Finance – Great business economics – Management – currently hit with slowdown due to auto slowdown, coal mining stoppage – NPA issue. Keeping a close watch on NPAs in coming quarters. Will invest if available at 1.5 P/BV or less. 10% allocation.
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Thomas Cook – Decent cash generative travel business – Management – Quess Corp to bring in growth in revenues and profits. However, finding it difficult to make projections and hence valuation. No planned allocation.
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Symphony – Great business model – Great Ratios – Revenue visibility for 5-6 years at least. However, very very pricey!! Keeping a watch on quarter earnings. Might be available cheap due to bad quarter. No planned allocation.
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Relaxo Footwears – Great business – Great Ratios – Products will never go obsolete – Revenue visibility for xx years. However, very very pricey!! No planned allocation.
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Cupid – Revenue visibility – good numbers – However, looks appropriately valued. No planned allocation.
Hence, as of now, I plan to invest in Piramal Enterprises, Vaibhav Global & PTC India Financials as mentioned above.
Would be great if you all share your views on the companies and investment plan as mentioned above. I am also open to look into other companies.
What I generally look for in a business –
a. Past track record
b. Growing revenues and profits
c. Growing / steady margins and improving ratios
d. Cash generative
e. Some uniqueness towards its products/services or business model (finding moats).
f. Management (Have shunned Amar Raja, Kitex, Pokarna, etc due to this)
g. Less / Nil Regulated businesses.
Apologies for the long post. Thanks in advance for the contribution.
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