Q3 Concall Notes
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Exports at 49% vs 35% year ago
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11% electricity consumption growth domestic in Q3
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30% RDSS scheme allocation is cables and conductors (over 5 years)
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Discom to power gen companies dues halved to Rs. 675 billion from 1210 billion
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EBITDA/ton high due to premium products, exports, steel price + logistics
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High EBITDA/ton next two quarters as well but changes are structural as well
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Domestic realisations are low due to low standards set by EPC players. Exports quality and realisations are higher
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Renewables cables will contribute to exports a lot from FY24
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Exports growth and momentum will continue in FY24 as well
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Once US Infra bill is passed, momentum will pick up
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Export trend very positive over next 3-5 years
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Underwriters lab approval – Apar has highest approvals in US
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Solar and Wind in Europe, Underground metros in Australia are driving growth
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Distribution spends will use cables and oils than conductors
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Commodity prices (copper) are hedged on receiving order
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US Infra – Cables for solar and wind farms, evacuation to grid (conductors), replacement of old T&D grid – Apar present in all 3
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300 Cr capex over 15 mo – mostly in cables and conductors. Greenfield project. preempting healthy demand
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China+1 is here to stay
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Cables – See visibility 25-30% CAGR for next several years
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1945 – 1970 infra in US will get replaced. So conductor demand will be huge
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100 to 200 Cr sales in B2C. Next year expecting 350 Cr
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RoE for 9 months at 21%. capex will maintain this RoE
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FTA with EU can be a big plus – 3.8-4% advantage
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Conductors – 15-20%, Cables – 25-30%, Oil – 5-7% growth for FY24
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Cables – 4-6x, 8-10x in house wires. Conductors – 5-6x asset turns
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Capacity utilisation – Almost 100% almost in cables and conductors
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US / Europe aren’t cost competitive and don’t see big capex happening there
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Premium products roughly 2x standard products and exports 1.5x standard
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HEC (High efficiency conductors) market share is 45% (Sterling Power is competitor)
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