I find many investors are getting concerned with taxability on return of capital in InvIT/REIT structure. I also have large exposure in Embassy REIT and critically evaluting my position. Having said that, the main factors which would be determined my decision would be issue about Embassy Group Corporate governance and Blackstone group constant reduction in holding. Find enclosed my key issues in current situaitons:
Positives:
- No fundemental change in the business prospects. In fact, during Q3 concall managment did give some indication (or my listening between the ears) that during FY24 , they may registered double digit growth at NOI level. While growth in NOI during FY23 did not translate in distribution to change in funding of debt (zero coupon to interest bearing) and higher share of Hotel busines (which has lower margin then Commerical rental business), I still consider this factor as positive.
- Clarity on SEZ building denotification. In Bengaluru city (where most of assets of the company are located), in case building has no tenant operating under SEZ, then building can be ednotified within 2-3 months from SEZ to normal office area
Negatives:
- Constant selling from Blackstone and issue of corporate governance from Embassy group
- Growth in NOI not translating in growth in distribution for one reason or other. Since listing, quarterly distributions from Embassy has not grown even to past level. Partially, one can attribute same to COVID related issues, but the new office development, which might benefit in long term is taking toll on distribution in medium term. For investor like me, who consider this as substitute to debt, it is not serving the purpose. Hence, for me, next quarter call when management would issue guideance about FY24 distribution, growth in distribtuon would be key consideration for remain invested in Embassy REIT
- Budget announcement about Taxability of capital redemption: While this may be pain point in near future, post announcement, I have mentally prepared myself even for taxability of Dividend in future. Further, as per budget documents I read, same was expected to implemented from 1 April 2024 (This is my reading and I am layman. My understanding may be completely wrong). Thirdly, other peer like Mindspace REIT are able to distribution 90% distribution in form of dividend, so within 6-9 months, I would consider even Embassy REIT would attempt to structure cashflow in way they are the most tax efifcient. This is my wishlist and may be completely wrong. In medium term (2-3 years), I would even consider dividend as taxable while taking my final view about holding.
In view of above, my current view is to wait and watch Embassy REIT closely. At current valuation, Rs 308 as I write, I do not find any sense to reduce my postion. I shall wait till Q4FY23 con call during April-May 2023 to decide way forward of investment.
Disclosure: Among my Top 3 investment idea in Debt portfolio (4% of my financial wealth). No trading in last 3 months. Not a SEBI registered advisor. Not suggesting any investment action in Embassy REIT. I may exit/increase my allocation without informing forum. Reader shall consult SEBI registered financial advisor and also do his/her own due diligence before investing.
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