Higher/volatile coking coal costs + lower pellet volumes/realizations may have affected Q3 margins. Suspect pellet sales will be a lot higher in 4Q (0.6+ Mill Tons) as:
- only 1.9/2.7 Mill Tons have been produced till Q3 this FY
- company has hit production ceiling allowed from sponge onwards, and will sell more pellet.
Estimating 1500-1600 cr Q4 revenue (with pellet ~40%) and 350-400 cr EBITDA because of higher pellet realizations (at ~10,000/Ton is +2000/Ton more vs Q2/Q3).
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