The first chart shows the feb 2023 data for Singapore benchmarked ATF crack spreads & the second chart is for march.The MOPAG pricing that India has recently adopted for pricing ATF domestically follows this benchmark & is a big change from the previous opaque PSU cross subsidised pricing mechanism.
ATF prices in india have been trading at 120$ crude equivalent till last month since crack spreads for middle distillates(ATF) have been abnormally high due to “supply chain” issues. A reversion to mean as indicated by the charts can mean a big boost for Indian aviation.
Heavily consolidated market,Cost leadership,Order book visibility till 2028(while everyone else is buying expensive planes in a Sellers market),Most competition has impaired balance sheets, with all this , a reduction in fuel cost !!
Looks like a Lollapalooza for IndiGo?!
Discl- InVested. Would love any feedback which wrecks this “theory” 
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