- Abilify sales in the Q1FY16 itself would be around USD 100 million. For full year on conservative basis, we can assume Abilify sales of around USD 250 million (considering increased competition from Q3 onwards). FY17 would be very difficult to predict and will depend on the competition coming in. But I still think it will be more than USD 20 million.
- Detrol sales might be in line with what many research reports are predicting.
- Considering Nexium has four players already in the market and Torrent whenever it gets approval, will be a late entrant. In whatever limited knowledge I have regarding pharma and in my interactions with industry experts, whenever a generic biggie like Torrent or Mylan are present in a particular market, they take away a lion’s share and players like Torrent have share of around early teens or high single digits. Regarding Nexium market size, although the IMS sales were around USD 5 billion, the innovator, AstraZeneca used to offer discounts upto 50 – 60% on the price to the insurance companies (as per an article I had read about it). We can assume the size to be around USD 2 billion on conservative basis. Nexium sales are difficult to predict for Torrent considering the date on which it gets approval. We can assume it to be in line with what research reports are predicting.
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