My understanding:
I agree the main issues are valuations, fuss around new entrants, and not registering 2X growth like before. If you observe the results of major paint companies, Akzo Nobel registered the highest YOY sales for Q3 around 7%(need to understand if growth came from decorative or institutions). Indigo comes second at around 5.9%(decorative). This means Indigo gained market share over the top 2 players.
Right now, valuations are cheap if you observe the valuation history of paint companies but in general, it’s still expensive. According to the new strategy, management is promising 2X the industry growth(I am Skeptical here). Paint companies take capacity expansion 2-3 years before they reach maximum capacity(80% is the peak utilization level in the paint industry). They are doing this expansion because their Kerala plant reached peak capacity.
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