Thanks to @rcinvestor999 and @RajeevJ for regular insights on recent developments.
A quick recap of past Order Book and following year revenue pattern (note it is only approximation to see trend and sourced from rating report etc)
- Dec 20 2021 order book was 1900 cr and CY 21 revenue was 1200 cr at 17% revenue
- Dec 21 orderbook was 2500 cr, CY 22 revenue is 1650 cr at 18%,
- Dec 22 order book is 3350 cr, CY 23 revenue likely to be …2400-2500 cr around 20% margins. (margins can be higher as well with operating leverage and RM stability)
Potential - current mkt cap is below 1800 cr. 10+ year median EV/EBDITA is 7, potential mkt cap of 3500 cr+ if above pattern pays out as base case, much stronger balance sheet than earlier as well.
Some points that stand out are
- as @RajeevJ pointed out this being a case of Indian MNC pedigree organization
- Strong balance sheet, return ratio and good Cash flow,
- Promoter increased stake over last many qtrs + MF holdings leaves less float in mkt
- Have taken out ATH on charts and looking in strong momentum
- Part of global infra spend story (India + strong global footprint enabling broader participation e.g. Nuclear energy spends in France)
- Investor communication - Valorem Advisors has been appointed as IR and they do have a good track record, quite important aspect in mkt perception
- Sector tailwinds - Water EPC - Many peers in India have also reported strong order win/book - KEC, kalpataru etc. Reassuring of collective sector demand visibility.
Stock has run up post Q3 results, however story might be just getting started and has potential of growth + some re-rating.
Invested
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