Hi guys,
I see lot of confusion among investors on yesbank lockin being released. Some people think it might go to 10 which is a joke to me.
Though I can be horribly wrong but I have tried to quantify it on my twitter account.
https://twitter.com/RaoManhar/status/1634508728769855489
Few main points out of It.
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SBI and LIC will not sell. LIC has maintained its shareholding in Q1,Q2,Q3 so why sell now. SBI has saved yesb and yesb has indirect support from GOI so SBI selling does not make sense. PK has also given hint in concall that SBI wont sell
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IDFC had an opportunity to sell 10cr shares 35% of it holding why it did not sell till now. I would assume max 30% selling from them on locked in shares. 6cr
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Same applies with HDFC,BB . They did not sell 25% of unlocked shareholding
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I fell BB can sell a good chunk let say 50%. 15cr and HDFC,AXIS,KOTAK,ICICI will hold. We have to compare invested amount to the investment portfolio of respective banks. In short they are peanuts for them.
can be wrong here as ICICI,KOTAK,AXIS have all their shares locked and how they would react is something which cannot be predicted but PK was confident and indicating that institutions wont sell
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Total 134cr locked in. Let us assume 70% of them sell which is very high considering most of them would be at 50% loss. 94cr
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The entire selling is going to be under 150cr(conservative). In my view max 2rs fall with these volumes
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Between 30 jan and 23 feb. 19 working days they did 11 investor meet. Mid boggling
This is a very important point to look at. Both institutional buyer came at 14.2 avg price these levels are a no brainer to most of the instructions.
- They have a book value of 14. This grows at a faster rate than profit because of 9000cr of Deferred Tax asset. For a Private bank with 1% NNPA PB of 1 is criminal
Thankyou
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