Given that Alembic has captured roughly same market share for Abilify as done by Torrent (as per various reports) and if we use same back of envelope calculation as used for calculating the revenue for Torrent from Abilify, then it will translate into roughly 200 MUSD sale coming from Abilify in FY16 for Alembic.
Assuming a 60-40 split with their partner, it will translate into 120 MUSD contribution in topline from Abilify to Alembic for FY!6 and a roughly 80 MUSD to bottom-line (based on blockbuster Q1 result of torrent and in case of Alembic they are sourcing API inhouse as per conf call). This contribution from Abilify in itself will be almost twice the PAT which Alembic earned for FY15 and on top of that we have their base business, contribution from Celebrex (which is also a big molecule) and guidance from company of 7-9 launches every year in US.
My guess estimate is that the FY16 EPS will be 40+ but that includes one off from abilify but they have robust product pipeline as highlighted by Ankit and should be able to sustain decent CAGR on base business as well.
All these are rough calculation and Q2 results will give how much we are correct.
Thoughts welcome.
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