Gujarat Themis Biosyn Ltd – Bulk Drugs growth momentum

Welcome to the forum Avinash (@Avinash_Baskar ).

1. To best of my understanding, there is no easy/direct tracking of Rifampicin domestic price trend. Even have not noticed this being tracked and reported by some of the sell side institutional desks who generally cover bulk chemical trend. However, purely by trade data section of Screener, import price has been in a narrow range for most part of the duration except some one-off spike for a short duration of time (mostly external factors) which gets normalized within months.

   [ i have desisted from providing direct screener.com trade data screenshot respecting the paywall requirement. You can look up for this info directly using following HS codes, if have access to Premium features of Screener]

2. Reading through bit of back ground info about the company and product, my understanding is that Rifampicin is a fermentation only process. To best of my understanding, below is a multi-step fermentation chain from -n to Intermediate.
   

3. My personal honest assessment is that more than cost advantage or tech edge, it’s more a function of they persisting and surviving in a challenging industry while enduring brutal competition. Two pointers to this:

   • Listening through multiple management commentary from the industry, fermentation is a hard to master stream. Even the folks who has been successful at lab scale production finds it challenging to get the required output meeting specifications at commercial scale of production.
   • Will not be exaggeration to say, entire fermentation industry in India was brought to knees by Chinese dumping riding on low power/labour cost and favourable policy actions by state. Check the below image to see how the fermentation industry was just annihilated:
   

Silver lining is that Government/s has recognized the importance of independent industry eco-system and strategic importance of self-reliance. Here is a good read from Gov. thinktank on how honestly they have reflected on policy/action shortcomings and trying to course correct ( Pharmaceuticals.gov.in.pdf (944.8 KB) )

Regards,
Tarun