@pikrohit … In my mental model the EPS of 30 for FY16 is given (though we can’t take anything for granted till it actually gets reported ), what I will be looking on EPS front is that how far on north or south of 40 they will end up, the Q2 results should be able to give a good idea about this.
What is working in favor of both Alembic and Torrent now is that they were slow and probably late to make entry into US and historically their US business has been small and that has set up a small base. e.g. US revenue of torrent were 134 MUSD and Alembic had international generic (inc US) revenue of 80 M USD for FY15. Now revenue from single molecule (Abilify) in FY16 will most likely exceed their entire full year FY15 revenue from US generic and will give a big swing to both topline and even more bigger swing to bottomline as contribution to bottomline will be much higher due to lesser price erosion in Abilify because of limited competition compared to a normal generic. On top of abilify we will have Detrol and probably Nexium for Torrent and Celebrex for Alembic plus a robust base business from India and other molecules from international generics.
At a molecule level abilify is a one off opportunity but at the company level both Alembic and Torrent have good product pipeline which can provide similar upside giving decent overall CAGR even after considering abilify effect.
Another company in similar situation is Cipla where a single molecule (Nexium) in US has provided a huge upswing to both top line and bottomline (despite Cipla having a much bigger size) as is evident from Q1 results.
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