I think there are numerous posts written in the older VP threads on this topic. I try to keep track of volumes and realisations to see what’s the growth driver. I also try to read what other companies in a sector are saying to know what cycle the industry is overall feeling.
I quite like the company, and was the largest driver of returns in my portfolio last year. I believe the share price currently reflects the prices of TAN, as it contributes over 70-80% to Deepak Fertiliser’s bottom line.
My guess is that they’ll do around 160-200 Cr. of PAT in Q4FY23, similar to Q3FY22.
Their capex unfortunately comes onstream just as an incredible cycle comes to a close. As someone sitting on the sidelines, I’m hoping the new capex runs into teething issues, or delays. I’d like a little more value before investing again, especially if TAN falls another 50% from here.
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