Hi
This is my first post on the forum so apologies if I get anything wrong!
Disclosure : Invested in the stock ~ hence, biased
I did some calculations a couple of weeks back, when the stock price was around ~ 300 level
Bearish :
Assuming a time horizon of 4 years, and a conservative growth in PAT of only 8% p.a, and assuming PE ratio at 10 only at time of exit, then market price shall be 300, thereby protecting capital – entry below 300 will provide a good margin of safety
Bullish :
In a scenario of 10% PAT p.a., and 20 PE, then market price shall be 649 thereby providing CAGR of 21% p.a.
I also did a write on the company from ground up to cover all the basics for someone who might be new in the space – for my own internal thesis/journal – & it’s a mashup of information gathered over the internet including annual reports and latest credit ratings.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BB6pEr0FXXhkPM_hCRgBudR4a3cSw4jo/view?usp=share_link
Also I was hearing that there is significant shortage of many cancer / oncology drugs in the US – don’t know much this would have a impact on Aarti pharma but may indicate that the down cycle if any may be short lived
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/drug-shortages-upend-cancer-treatments
Feel free to provide your inputs
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