It is probably unrealistic to talk about fy26/fy27 earnings now (though an educated guess with 75-80% accuracy is possible as @Rakesh_Arora has explained multiple ways to model):
- Phase-1 of expansions (+3M tons pellet plant, ore beneficiation) will be ready only in fy26 end. By today’s info new capacities will be available in fy27.
- 6500+ was a good pellet realization in 2000, but with rise in various input costs ~7800 was a bad realization in Q2FY23. Perhaps 8000 is the new base realization for pellets.
For Q4fy23, my EBITDA estimate is Rs.250-290 cr.
Really surprised by Lloyd’s Metals valuation, apart from mining expansion (volume can’t keep compounding next year) what are they doing right vs GPIL ?
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