They don’t look correlated. Try calculating the Spearman rank correlation between the two. Also, the gradients of the two curves maybe useful to plot : Bottoming out = local minima.
interest rates are halfway in the down cycle
How can you know in advance if you are halfway in the down cycle? So it’s not really an actionable metric for making decisions.
I have found Bank FD rates as an intuitive metric, so maybe that’s something worth checking. They can be a leading indicator for market topping out – but not done a proper study.
I maintain similar charts on Bajaar – Indicators.
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