YTD23 is -5.5%. 3 year XIRR is +28.64%. I have underperformed PPFAS over the past 3 years.
There are minor changes, nothing new is added that is outside my watchlist or exited completely. I’m not active in the markets as my trading & small cap positions got consolidated into my existing ones in Jan, as I wrote at that time.
100% consists of the below, I have given interesting names for fun!
- Khal Nayak
- Delhi Belly
- Chor Bazaar
- Park Avenue Mart
- Horse Rider
- Kona Kona bank
- Super Meteor
Changes done:
- During YTD, Chor has gone up ~ 50% while Meteor fell 20%, so I was anyway looking for long term entry, so moved half.
- Delhi Belly is unmoved, but Kona, Horse Rider fell so, re-jigged.
- Khal Nayak – no changes. I think it is Madhuri Dixit but market thinks it is Gulshan Grover with make up. Let’s see!
I’m patient with a reason until there is none. Nothing new can be written about the fundamentals of the above stocks, in fact they have only improved over the last 6 months. Markets take out the last bear or suck in the last bull before reversing. Only, independent thoughts, conviction, courage to follow through on that conviction by ignoring the noise will bear long term success – on a 3 to 5 year. During these consolidation phases, people exit, people enter, so called experts talk based on what suits their self interest. We should do what our research says.
Anyway, I’m in positions where I have the highest conviction but will change my mind in a jiffy if I sense my original thesis is not playing out. I’m brutal in this sense.
Since my return expectations are 15% thereabouts, I do not have the motivation to find gems in the dust (there are many I believe as we speak). Even otherwise, my PF has super high risk & low beta – balance.
My full attention is now on my health, family time, books, find the social activity I’m passionate about and work towards it & of course OTT.
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High persistent inflation, high interest rates is a potential killer of even strong businesses. So, please be very careful of selection. This is reminiscent of US markets in 1960s, 1970s. May or may not play out but better to be mindful.
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Basing market action on macro is a land mine, markets do not work that way. Whatever macro you thought of, markets would have probably discounted that already.
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I cannot stress enough on not buying/ selling based on twitter threads, PMS managers selection of stocks, star investor etc. Found so many PMS managers who do not make any sense while talking about valuations but just shoot from the hip on the latest trends just to attract views & then milk them for money and commissions.
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Technical analysis – invaluable & priceless tool with its own set of limitations. So, life is not fair, deal with it.
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New investors MUST learn by reading books on fundamental analysis, technical analysis, bull & bear cycles, psychology of markets and not play in futures & options unless you are doubly sure. This is the environment where if a right pick & right allocation is done, life changing moments come through in future. Make sure, you do not lose money, this is very important, you need to have the raw material to make more. So, keep greed at bay. Learn quickly, These days so much valuable information is available for free.
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Nothing lasts permanently, so, keep faith, do the hard work, stay focused, be patient, no money in junk. A point will come where sellers have nothing to sell.
All the best.
Disclosure: I’m not SEBI registered & nothing I write is financial advice. This is my log of learnings, mistakes. I hold stocks mentioned here & may sell anytime without prior intimation & there are transactions in the last 30 days.
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