I have started re-looking at Auto stocks after some time.
Auto being the non-secular growth story, I rarely have bought Auto stocks in the past, and except Hero Motors and Bajaj Auto, I have not bought any auto stock in the past.
I have exited both these stocks long back.
Reason for re-looking at Auto stocks is that: Inflation may come down from here, which may benefit Auto companies to some extent. Margins might expand and with steady income in many sectors, people may start buying vehicles with more enthusiasm.
After some research, I found that, GST on Cars / Sedans / SUV(s)/ Premium Cars in India is as high as 45% or more. I would like to know if this is on par with Developed or other Developing Nations or much higher than that?
If it is very high, Why people should buy Premium Cars and Pay large portion of it as Tax? People will prefer Value for Money cars, and this is the BIG Negative for all Auto stocks in India.
Margins of car makers may not improve much as they can not pass on the RM prices to the buyers since people will buy even lesser cars in that case.
Does this make the whole Auto stock investment not that worth? In general, this industry will continue to remain capital intensive, Low margin, Low ROCE business.
If ROCE is not more than Cost of Capital, how will it create wealth for the individual investor in next decade?
I am curious to know views of others about GST/VAT rates in US, Canada, Europe, and other Developing nations. How the auto industry future in India looks like? Most of the investors often invest in Insurance companies, Energy Exchanges, AMC stocks saying that, there is long tailwind in these sectors. Similarly we should compare scenario of Auto sector in India with Developed nations to see if there are long tailwinds in Auto sector in India or not.
No Investment in any Auto stock post 2020.
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