Yes the growth projection do look stretched in short term. However, as industry goes from plain vanilla offerings to more evolved offerings, growth rates can pick up in value terms. I would personally run with a 20%+ CAGR for Indian market.
As for market, in the short run it can be extremely erratic, sentiment driven. The small caps are largely down en-block. On a medium term basis, I think most Indian analyst are not convinced about CPaaS. They talk of moats, price wars, product differentiation, technology development which will make sms obsolete etc. Their exposure to CPaaS is literally post 2020 IPO of Route only and Tanla due to its past is something they don’t want to touch. It will take time for them to accept Tanla (if they ever do) and till such time the industry leader is not accepted , it casts a long shadow on the industry valuations.
On your third question, no it’s not a clear split between Tanla and Route. There are at least 5 more players with market shares between 5-10%, I guess and each of them have atleast some wallet share in few major enterprise customers. Typically, large enterprises have more than 2 vendors. In BFSI sector, Tanla had perhaps 50%+ market-share till a year or so back. In ILD Tanla+Route may perhaps be upwards of 75% market share. But others (ranking 3-10) position will have their presence as well. I don’t think there is any publicly available information which details this at sector or individual account level.
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