A hard landing in the US has become the base case for many economists, particularly after the recent banking-sector turmoil. However, Morgan Stanley’s global chief economist, Seth Carpenter, believes there are still signs a soft landing can be achieved. Carpenter says that whilst it is hard to avoid the fact that the US economy will slow down, the Federal Reserve has a chance to avoid a recession by assessing whether there is enough evidence that things are slowing down a lot, but not yet crashing.
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