@rajpanda Sir thankyou for your notes.
I was present in the con call but never got a chance to speak 
Written to the IR team but I have a 100% track record of never getting a response
Anyway I already found answers to all my previous question I had new set of questions and found answer to 50% of them. I am putting the questions for which I have not found the answer below.
Q 1 – Their gross sales in Q3 excluding the standalone number ( Sales from Maharashtra plant) was 190cr and in Q4 it is 320cr. KA was already at 100% utilization and despite that they added incremental sales of 130cr, How?? Too good. I think they should have a dominant share in OR now. This is the reason they might be doing capex in OR. In OR their market share was 12% as on 31st dec 2022 and biggest competitor is UB so if they gain market share here then we can conclude that there is something very good about their beer.
Despite being aware of the glass bottle thing I tried to overestimate the margins. So when ever sales increases or they set up new capacity they have to purchase new bottles which are expensive than the returned bottles this they faced in 2019, 2018 when they set up capacity in KA and OR.
In MP their ED as a % of gross sales has been very volatile like in Q1 it was 11% in Q2 12% in Q3 26% and in Q4 16%. I think this is because when ever they sell more from the MP plant in MP their ED is low but when they sell outside MP this ED is high. So next quarter this should further fall as they would sell maximum in MP.
The way management was answering margins for Q1 FY 24 ( Lets see, Lets see) and they will have to buy new bottles in Q1 because of new capacity looks like margins in Q1 is also going to be some what same.
My expectation is 300cr to 400cr sales more close to 350cr and margins of 11% to 12%. Their PAT growth on a YOY basis should be within 0% to 25%. Anything above this would be an earning surprise ,at least for me. Q2 should be a extremely good quarter on a YOY basis.
They will exceed 1000cr sales next year as per me. Lets see.
| Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |
