Q4 concall notes:
Increase in EBITDA in Q4 is due to reduced gas cost.
Gas cost was low due low spot prices and priority allocation of HPHT gas to CGD companies from Feb helping in replacing costlier RLNG gas.
APM gas price fixed as per KP committee recommendation from April.
CNG prices are reduced twice to current price of Rs.79 from Rs.89
Domestic PNG price reduced from Rs. 54/scm to Rs.49/SCM from April.
Covid impact and high CNG prices have impacted growth last year. One time impact on CNG in Q4 due to BEST taking off CNG buses for a month.
Volume growth guidance of 5 to 6% on a long term basis. With reduction in prices CNG volumes will increase, Raigad area industrial/ commercial customers and increase in domestic connections in the last 2 yrs will support growth.
Normal domestic PNG growth is 5-6%.
Management is open to reduce the gas price further depending on sourcing cost and alternate fuel prices.
Currently CNG price is 16% discount to diesel.
Present Spot gas at ~12$/mmbtu …HPHT at 12$/mmbtu. ( Was at average of 17$ in Q4?) … for next few month cost of gas looks good for us.
Domestic household new connections in Q4: 92k
Total conections 2.17 millions.
12 new CNG stations added in Q4 and 25 for FY 23. 41 CNG stations were upgraded.
FY24 target is to add 40 new stations in GA 2 & 3 and 40 will be upgraded.
Total no of CNG stations:313
Raigad GA:68K household connections. 28 CNG stations.
New Industrial and commercial customers added;115. total customers no: 4558
CNG vehicle addition during Q4 is low at 14k…with CNG price reduction from April volumes have grown at 7% week on week.
Among CNG volumes buses:8%, auto 3w:35% pvt car/tax:45% cv/trucks:10%.
CNG penetration is low in cv segment. OEMs are are coming out with factory fitted CNG variants in light commercial vehicles
Cng ecosystem is becoming pan india. All the highways from mumbai have CNG stations to distant places.
% of APM gas sourcing 93% in FY 23…likely to be 90% for FY24.
Rs/SCM is the right matrix to track for CGD companies than EBITDA% to revenue.
Op cost Rs.5.4 /scm in FY23.
EBITDA of Rs 12.8 /SCM IN Q4 for the whole year is Rs.9.5/scm.
Discussing with Mumbai municipal to set up a CBG plant.
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