strong numbers and commentary in Q4
trajectory over last 3 years has been healthy
Q3 concall and notes in thread is a good resource to get a glimpse in changes
Some of them that stands out are
- Structural shift in demand in domestic market – juices/pulp etc gaining prominence and co has all major brands with them coke/pepsi(fruit drinks). – concall is a good listen
- PLI win strengthening mgmt ambitions – mgmt had first concall post Q3
- QIP done recently gives them fire power to scale biz (being WC intensive)
- Communication effort – AR is a good read, press releases and concall started
- Operating model transformation – a co which used be seasonal/majority mango is pulp/majority exports is now delivering more predictable/non mango share increasing/domestic share increasing/value added mix focus – to some extent visible in last few qtrs
- Optionality – pectin (higher GM biz to come online by June 23), new facilities for spray powder and tetra recard went live in Mar 23 – to aid in Fy 24 performance. Co also focusing on own brand and spices performance to improve
- AR also points out sustainability focus and thus thinking for long term as they work with marquee global brands like Coke, pepsi etc.
to watch out for
- Cashflow and WC intensity
- moderation in seasonal spikes
- mgtm has indicated Gross profit/kg (varies by product) as key metrics – along with volume growth pattern
- supply side organized player competitive intensity – though not many players here e.g. possibly jain irrigation one of listed player seem to be having bal sheet challenges(have agro segment)
Valuations and price action is supportive for some re-rating and growth
D : Invested
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