Result expectations for Q4 FY 23
Assumption is that a wagon price is 0.35cr and remains constant.
- Q2 FY 23
- Wagons sold – 860+, revenue contribution = 860*0.4 = 301cr (source valuepickr)
- Revenue – 417cr, non wagon revenue ~ 118cr
- Q3 FY 23
- Wagons sold – 1425 = 1425*0.4 = 498 ceiling (Feb concall)
- Revenue – 644, non wagon revenue ~ 146cr
- Management mentioned that container business was out of focus as next quarter should see numbers coming back for container business as well.
- Q4 FY 23 Expectation with Wagon price at 0.35cr
- Wagons sold are in the range of 500 to 600 per month with 600+ in March (April concall). I am assuming ~1700 wagons, revenue contribution = 1700*0.35 = 595cr
- Expected revenue – easily 750+, QoQ jump of 16%+.
- Brake disc commercial production has also started.
- Q4 FY 23 Expectation with Wagon price at 0.4cr.
- Mr Lohia mentioned that avg value is above 40 lakh.
- Doing similar calculation with new wagon price the revenue expectation cross 830cr+.
On a very rough calculation the company is trading roughly at ~20x FY24 EPS and ROCE of 30%+ if margins stay at 13%. Management has guided that margins will improve further as they have started production in house brake discs.
Disc: 1% position, looking to add more before the results.
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